PACKAGES

Here are the packages I need to create this model:

library(googlesheets4)
gs4_deauth()
library(tidyverse)
library(leaflet)
library(sf)
library(tigris)

DATA

Geogrpahic data

default.crs = sf::st_crs(4326)
fairfax.roads <- roads("VA", "Fairfax city")
fairfax.county <- county_subdivisions("VA", "Fairfax city")

Get Facility Data: Bus Stops

bus.stops <- read_sheet('https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OLjEjJJiyjuu5arluv2oiorM4TqzqIk7PQJ9g4Ichvo')

Activiity Data: Calls

id.calls <- "1gRoL7lZlwm7sreA5F9WbPoH5su4n4iGS"
calls.full <- read.csv(sprintf("https://docs.google.com/uc?id=%s&export=download", id.calls))

Filtered Data Since COVID

calls <- subset(calls, calls$date > '2020-03-12')

Maps

Map 1: Hotspot Map

Analysis 1:

Around bus stops the specific activity type chosen to evaluate were Juvenile cases, Property cases, and Vandalism/Graffiti through calls. Property cases and Vandalism/Graffiti have very similar call patterns. Although Vandalism/Graffiti is most likely to occur at bus stops because there is a total of 43 calls since COVID began and it accounts for 46% of calls at bus stops between the three activity types chosen. Property cases are next likely to happen since they are so similar, they are right under Vandalism/Graffiti at 41% with 38 calls.

Analysis 2:

In the remainder of 2023, it is expected to see based on stats Vandalism/Graffiti calls occur the most but spread out. It is then likely to see Property case calls occur but in a more concentrated area and the same goes for Juvenile cases. Specific bus stops have a higher call concentration like 29k and 1c. Those two bus stops are expected to see mainly Vandalism/Graffiti and property case calls to these locations.

Map 2: Hotspot Map by Activity Type

Analysis 3:

With the three call types chosen starting with Juvenile cases, it is not as likely to occur but the hotspots are in a different location than where Property cases and Vandalism/Graffiti calls occur. This shows that the juveniles are not linked to the other calls. Since Vandalism/Graffiti and Property Cases are so similar their hotspots are in similar areas and the coldspots are also the same. These are expected to stay consistent as time goes on since COIVD began.

Analysis 4:

For the remainder of 2023, Juvenile cases are expected to mainly occur in the Northwest part of Fairfax on Jermantown Rd. and Fairfax Blvd. The other location that Juvenile case calls will occur in the Northeast part of Fairfax around Fairfax High school. Property case calls are most likely to occur in the middle of Fairfax by the Police Station. Vandalism/Graffiti is going to experience the most activity in Downtown Fairfax on University and Main St. The main cold spots are in the North which are Chain Bridge Rd., Fairfax Boulevard, and Fairwoods Parkway. The other cold spot is in the East on Pickett Rd.

Map 3: Interactive Cluster

Temporal Topologies

Temporal Typology 1: Day of Week and Hour of Day

Temporal Typology 2: Day of Week and Hour of Day by Activity Type

Analysis 5:

Calls for these three activity types occur all around the same time period. Juvenile case calls do not occur as much as Property case and Vandalism/Graffiti calls occur. Calls occur every day of the week except on Sundays. The majority of these calls also occur in a time frame of 6 am-6 pm with the exception of Property case calls that occur at 11 pm.

Analysis 6:

For the remainder of 2023, Juvenile case calls are most likely to occur on Monday at 5 pm and Wednesday at 1 pm, this occurs after kids get out of school or when they are in school. Property case calls are going to happen every day of the week except for Wednesday and Sunday. These calls are going to come in more on Monday at 5 pm and Sunday at 11 pm. Vandalism/Graffiti occurs every day except Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday, with calls coming in at a higher rate on Friday at 10 am and Monday at 6 pm. Patrol and dispatch mainly receive these calls during the 0700-1900 shift, while the 1900-0700 receives 3 calls on Saturday at 11 pm. Calls decrease when the buses stop running which is why there are fewer calls at night and early morning and most buses stop running a little after 8 pm.